What mitigation means and why it is important

Mitigation efforts like social distancing help reduce the disease caseload
 on any given date, and can keep the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed.Credit...
Drew Harris

I came across this graphic this morning in the NY Times.  It was part of an interview with Drew Harris, a population health analyst at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia.  The graphic was created by Rosamund Pearce for an article in The Economist and is based on a 2017 CDC article about how to deal with a novel influenza A pandemic.  In yesterday's White House briefing, Dr. Anthony Fauci said, "What we need to do is flatten that [curve] down."  I didn't understand the importance of that until I saw this graphic and read the interview.

Once a county moves to mitigation, as the U. S., there is no hope of stopping the spread of the virus.  However, we can do something to impact the speed and trajectory of that spread.  If we do nothing or do something too late, the virus infection increase dramatically in a short period of time.  We get the red curve.  If we take steps to "interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak," the infection spreads through the community at a slower rate over a longer period of time.  The blue curve.  These are called epi curves.  The broken line in the chart shows the healthcare system's capacity in a community.  The red curve rapidly exceeds that capacity which means that some people cannot get the treatment they need to survive.   There are more people than the system can handle and there are fewer health care workers who are healthy enough to work.  A double whammy.

This helped me understand the importance of doing my part in trying to mitigate this infectious disease and, in fact, any other including the seasonal flu.  Even before more extreme measures (social distancing) are mandated by local health offices, I can begin to develop good habits to interrupt community transmission.  Eventually, more severe measures will be needed but for now, I can do the common sense things recommended by the CDC.

For more information, go to www.coronavirus.gov